Transhumanist predictions

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Various transhumanists have made different predictions, estimations or statements about the transhumanist future. These may be based on the projected development of emerging technologies and assume a degree of technological and/or social disruption as a consequence.

Medium Future

2029-2030 - Indefinite life extension achieved

2045 - Artificial general intelligence heralds the technological singularity

2050 - End of mass factory farming

  • David Pearce predicts "In the second half of this century slaughterhouses and factory-farms will be shut and outlawed world-wide. Veganism / invitrotarianism will become the norm"[4]

Far Future

David Pearce collected a set of 24 predictions 'by the year 3000' for a posthuman and transhuman future.[5]

Disagreements

There appears to be no systemic approach to align and harmonise predictions from relevant experts and advocates. For example, cryonicist Mike Darwin has been highly critical of Kurzweil's singularity prediction saying:

...the 7% who anticipate survival via cryonics likely to be signed up. In fact, I’d wager not more than one or two of them is. And why should they bestir themselves in any way to this end? After all, the Singularity is coming, it is INEVITABLE, and all they have to do is to sit back and wait for it to arrive – presumably wrapped up in in pretty paper and with bows on.[6][7]

Others such as James Miller see synergies between AGI and cryonics:

Singularity expectations eviscerate several anti-cryonics arguments. I’ve heard some object to cryonics because they wouldn’t want to wake up in a world in which they had no skills. Well, after a good singularity we would all be so rich that this wouldn’t be impoverishing, and if the Singularity arrives through ultra-AI then every human (not just the recently revived) would either have easily upgradeable skills because of their computer implants or be hopelessly obsolete compared to what super-intelligent AIs could accomplish.[8]

See also

References

  1. Google's chief futurist Ray Kurzweil thinks we could start living forever by 2029
  2. September 2018 Methuselah Foundation Cofounder thinks Longevity Escape Velocity could be here by 2030
  3. 2005 - Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near, pp. 135–136. Penguin Group, 2005. "So we will be producing about 1026 to 1029 cps of nonbiological computation per year in the early 2030s. This is roughly equal to our estimate for the capacity of all living biological human intelligence ... This state of computation in the early 2030s will not represent the Singularity, however, because it does not yet correspond to a profound expansion of our intelligence. By the mid-2040s, however, that one thousand dollars' worth of computation will be equal to 1026 cps, so the intelligence created per year (at a total cost of about $1012) will be about one billion times more powerful than all human intelligence today. That will indeed represent a profound change, and it is for that reason that I set the date for the Singularity—representing a profound and disruptive transformation in human capability—as 2045."
  4. Quote received via email to Deku-shrub 7th December 2018
  5. 24 Predictions for the Year 3000
  6. Mike Darwin on Kurzweil, Techno-Optimism, and Delusional Stances on Cryonics
  7. The Kurzwild Man in the Night
  8. Cryonics and the Singularity